The NFL season is now in Week 7, and the computers are picking their winners for every game.
We took a look at two popular systems used to pick NFL games: Cortana, Microsoft’s digital assistant, and Elo, the modeling system used by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.
In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood of a team’s winning, which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.
The two models have struggled in recent weeks with a lot of underdogs winning outright in the NFL. ELO went just 6-8 in Week 6 and has the overall lead at 55-36 (60%). Cortana was even worse at 5-9 and is now four games back at 51-40 (56%) overall.
Here are the picks for Week 7, with each model’s percent chance of winning in parentheses. Games in bold are where the two models disagree on who has the best chance to win. Point spreads are just for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.
- Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Oakland Raiders — CHIEFS (Elo 67%, Cortana 67%)
- Tennessee Titans (-6) at Cleveland Browns — TITANS (Elo 68%, Cortana 78%)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Indianapolis Colts — COLTS (Elo 55%), JAGUARS (Cortana 64%)
- Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) — STEELERS (Elo 72%, Cortana 63%)
- Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) — VIKINGS (Elo 68%, Cortana 64%)
- New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3) — DOLPHINS (Elo 65%, Cortana 55%)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (-3) — BILLS (Elo 67%, Cortana 51%)
- Carolina Panthers (-3) at Chicago Bears — PANTHERS (Elo 61%, Cortana 63%)
- New Orleans Saints (-4.5) at Green Bay Packers — PACKERS (Elo 63%), SAINTS (Cortana 67%)
- Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-3) — CARDINALS (Elo 53%, Cortana 53%)
- Dallas Cowboys (-6) at San Francisco 49ers — COWBOYS (Elo 73%, Cortana 65%)
- Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) at New York Giants — SEAHAWKS (Elo 54%, Cortana 79%)
- Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-1) — BRONCOS (Elo 55%), CHARGERS (Cortana 55%)
- Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (-3.5) — PATRIOTS (Elo 68%, Cortana 58%)
- Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) — EAGLES (Elo 69%, Cortana 66%)